# Tourism-L
## HierE2E
```
level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.009835110827469818                                                                                                                      
level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.015192109854761767                                                                                                                      
level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.016081413064328122                                                                                                                      
level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.10452441449827891                                                                                                                       
mean_wQuantileLoss 0.03640826181256864 

level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.08841561984920518                                                                                                                       
level_2_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.10245532288916552                                                                                                                   
level_3_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.13168395008747966                                                                                                                   
level_4_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.17060178806953902
level_2_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.10669968850261204
level_3_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.13613054404456343
level_4_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.19959903893178
level_5_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.26695314628452765
mean_wQuantileLoss 0.15031738758773777
```

## ProbHardE2E-Or

Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0704 +/- 0.0069
Mean +/- std. of level_2_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0997 +/- 0.0060
Mean +/- std. of level_3_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1360 +/- 0.0108
Mean +/- std. of level_4_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1774 +/- 0.0122
Mean +/- std. of level_2_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1140 +/- 0.0087
Mean +/- std. of level_3_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1532 +/- 0.0116
Mean +/- std. of level_4_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2167 +/- 0.0135
Mean +/- std. of level_5_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2841 +/- 0.0139
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1564 +/- 0.0094

## ProbHardE2E-Ob

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0979 +/- 0.0073
Mean +/- std. of level_2_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1046 +/- 0.0032
Mean +/- std. of level_3_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1370 +/- 0.0032
Mean +/- std. of level_4_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1711 +/- 0.0021
Mean +/- std. of level_2_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1126 +/- 0.0067
Mean +/- std. of level_3_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1432 +/- 0.0038
Mean +/- std. of level_4_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2056 +/- 0.0037
Mean +/- std. of level_5_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2696 +/- 0.0026
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1552 +/- 0.0036

## DeepVAR

Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=1: 10148.662109375 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=2: 2710.361572265625 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=3: 75074.4375 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=4: 4265.45361328125 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=5: 8619.9658203125 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=6: 4885.921875 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=7: 4932.02685546875 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=8: 691599.5625 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=9: 9726.2578125 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=10: 56615.546875 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=11: 70453.0546875 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=12: 27342.033203125

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0846 +/- 0.0114
Mean +/- std. of level_2_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0988 +/- 0.0037
Mean +/- std. of level_3_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1333 +/- 0.0042
Mean +/- std. of level_4_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1692 +/- 0.0030
Mean +/- std. of level_2_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0961 +/- 0.0086
Mean +/- std. of level_3_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1332 +/- 0.0051
Mean +/- std. of level_4_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1987 +/- 0.0029
Mean +/- std. of level_5_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2652 +/- 0.0026
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1474 +/- 0.0047


# Tourism

## HierE2E
```
level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.039018715148833906
level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.06617996522768994
level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.10385781937581666
level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.12224850629348882
mean_wQuantileLoss 0.08282625151145732
```
## DeepVAR
```
level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.05100523375433781
level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.07997234592101417
level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.11114895307628676
level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.12704134138361167
mean_wQuantileLoss 0.09229196853381258
```

## ProbHardE2E

```
level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.059502557293394355                                                                                                                            
level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.07545788494444387                                                                                                                           
level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.10708760159993864                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.13196319162613604                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
mean_wQuantileLoss 0.09350280886597823

```

### ProbHardE2E 100 samples

```
****** Results averaged over 1 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0565 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0741 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1067 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1254 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0907 +/- 0.0000
```

<!-- ### 400 samples

```
****** Results averaged over 1 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0624 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0771 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1112 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1285 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0948 +/- 0.0000
``` -->

# Traffic

```
level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.04229945203911334
level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.0400573328148816
level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.036313821077094334
level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.1016108945951527
mean_wQuantileLoss 0.05507037502240174

****** Results averaged over 1 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0423 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0401 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0363 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1016 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0551 +/- 0.0000
```

<!-- # Tourism-small

## DeepVAR

```
level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.05704109559868094
level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.07755405029038996
level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.10614586626702238
level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss 0.1271847854315493
mean_wQuantileLoss 0.09198144939691064
```

## ProbHardE2E

```

``` -->



# Wiki2

## HierE2E

```
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0779 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0752 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0740 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0739 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0753 +/- 0.0000
```

## ProbHardE2E-Or

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0342 +/- 0.0148
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1374 +/- 0.0191
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2383 +/- 0.0255
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2851 +/- 0.0201
Mean +/- std. of level_5_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.3839 +/- 0.0271
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2158 +/- 0.0169

## ProbHardE2E-Ob

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0232 +/- 0.0093
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1359 +/- 0.0407
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2393 +/- 0.0368
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2797 +/- 0.0357
Mean +/- std. of level_5_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.3826 +/- 0.0277
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2121 +/- 0.0294

## New CRPS


## Tourism-smalll

### ProbHardE2E-Or

****** Results averaged over 1 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0449 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0592 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1038 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1219 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0824 +/- 0.0000


****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0531 +/- 0.0096
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0665 +/- 0.0084
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1063 +/- 0.0058
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1277 +/- 0.0060
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0884 +/- 0.0066

### ProbHardE2E-Ob

****** Results averaged over 1 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0680 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0854 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1245 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1415 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1049 +/- 0.0000

****** Results averaged over 1 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0486 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0649 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1075 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1267 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0869 +/- 0.0000

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0698 +/- 0.0214
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0779 +/- 0.0129
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1133 +/- 0.0095
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1348 +/- 0.0096
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0989 +/- 0.0130

Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0704 +/- 0.0069
Mean +/- std. of level_2_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0997 +/- 0.0060
Mean +/- std. of level_3_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1360 +/- 0.0108
Mean +/- std. of level_4_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1774 +/- 0.0122
Mean +/- std. of level_2_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1140 +/- 0.0087
Mean +/- std. of level_3_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1532 +/- 0.0116
Mean +/- std. of level_4_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2167 +/- 0.0135
Mean +/- std. of level_5_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2841 +/- 0.0139
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1564 +/- 0.0094

## DeepVAR

Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=1: 261.680908203125 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=2: 1672.6015625 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=3: 491.2154541015625 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=4: 297.7944030761719 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=5: 1362.697265625 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=6: 6254.55712890625 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=7: 730.0684204101562 
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=8: 646.5291137695312


****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0561 +/- 0.0086
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0822 +/- 0.0071
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1161 +/- 0.0063
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1356 +/- 0.0076
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0975 +/- 0.0052

## Labour

10 epochs

### ProbHardE2E-Or

****** Results averaged over 1 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******                                              
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0253 +/- 0.0000                                                                                       
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0285 +/- 0.0000                                                                                       
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0284 +/- 0.0000                                                                                       
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0314 +/- 0.0000                                                                                       
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0284 +/- 0.0000 

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0229 +/- 0.0092
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0288 +/- 0.0061
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0291 +/- 0.0057
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0337 +/- 0.0055
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0286 +/- 0.0065


## ProbHardE2E-Ob

****** Results averaged over 1 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0433 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0404 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0384 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0416 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0409 +/- 0.0000

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0373 +/- 0.0035
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0348 +/- 0.0028
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0341 +/- 0.0024
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0383 +/- 0.0025
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0361 +/- 0.0027

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0362 +/- 0.0038
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0334 +/- 0.0029
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0317 +/- 0.0025
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0353 +/- 0.0027
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0342 +/- 0.0030

## DeepVAR

Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=1: 0.22104580700397491
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=2: 0.17742480337619781
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=3: 0.23542220890522003
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=4: 0.2385925054550171
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=5: 0.24188284575939178
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=6: 0.20026668906211853
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=7: 0.23812393844127655
Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=8: 0.20532891154289246

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0429 +/- 0.0131
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0451 +/- 0.0087
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0453 +/- 0.0068
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0453 +/- 0.0068
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0447 +/- 0.0086

## HierE2E

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0499 +/- 0.0242
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0504 +/- 0.0206
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0498 +/- 0.0200
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0520 +/- 0.0176
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0505 +/- 0.0206

# Traffic

## ProbHardE2E-Or

****** Results averaged over 1 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0213 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0234 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0231 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.1744 +/- 0.0000
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 1 num_runs: 0.0606 +/- 0.0000


## ProbHardE2E-Ob

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0067 +/- 0.0028
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0163 +/- 0.0083
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0269 +/- 0.0068
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2256 +/- 0.0067
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0689 +/- 0.0050

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0181 +/- 0.0104
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0201 +/- 0.0086
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0225 +/- 0.0054
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1593 +/- 0.0224
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0550 +/- 0.0106


## DeepVAR

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ****** 
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0272 +/- 0.0105
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0258 +/- 0.0070
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0307 +/- 0.0055
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0998 +/- 0.0041 
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0459 +/- 0.0043

Reconciliation error for prediction time step t=1: 0.20318354666233063                                                                                               





## Traffic

## Tourism

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******                                              
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0680 +/- 0.0194                                                                                       
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0851 +/- 0.0186                                                                                       
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1194 +/- 0.0140                                                                                       
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1400 +/- 0.0142                                                                                       
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1031 +/- 0.0163  

## Tourism-L

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0812 +/- 0.0168
Mean +/- std. of level_2_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1060 +/- 0.0112
Mean +/- std. of level_3_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1429 +/- 0.0097
Mean +/- std. of level_4_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1836 +/- 0.0076
Mean +/- std. of level_2_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1178 +/- 0.0193
Mean +/- std. of level_3_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1557 +/- 0.0114
Mean +/- std. of level_4_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2190 +/- 0.0095
Mean +/- std. of level_5_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2844 +/- 0.0085
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1613 +/- 0.0109

## Wiki

labour, 0.0505 +/- 0.0206

## NLL

## Labour

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.5303 +/- 0.3175
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.5974 +/- 0.3041
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.6171 +/- 0.3093
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.6335 +/- 0.2991
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.5945 +/- 0.3061

## Traffic

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0156 +/- 0.0068
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0166 +/- 0.0047
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0198 +/- 0.0040
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2320 +/- 0.0025
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0710 +/- 0.0039

## Tourism

Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0611 +/- 0.0099
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0793 +/- 0.0117
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1164 +/- 0.0073
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1356 +/- 0.0100
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0981 +/- 0.0094

## Tourism-L

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.0901 +/- 0.0146
Mean +/- std. of level_2_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1104 +/- 0.0124
Mean +/- std. of level_3_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1420 +/- 0.0099
Mean +/- std. of level_4_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1799 +/- 0.0079
Mean +/- std. of level_2_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1128 +/- 0.0131
Mean +/- std. of level_3_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1508 +/- 0.0109
Mean +/- std. of level_4_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2137 +/- 0.0086
Mean +/- std. of level_5_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2806 +/- 0.0066
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.1600 +/- 0.0104

## Labour

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.2520 +/- 0.0519
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.3445 +/- 0.0526
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.3640 +/- 0.0412
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.4075 +/- 0.0263
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.3420 +/- 0.0376


## Probconserv

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.6267 +/- 0.1336
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 1.1076 +/- 0.2117
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 1.2293 +/- 0.1716
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 1.5410 +/- 0.1526
Mean +/- std. of level_5_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 1.6562 +/- 0.1538
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 1.2322 +/- 0.1460

****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.4014 +/- 0.1865
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.4560 +/- 0.0851
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.5920 +/- 0.0908
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.6085 +/- 0.0899
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.5145 +/- 0.1125


****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.6775 +/- 0.3790
Mean +/- std. of level_2_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.7472 +/- 0.3026
Mean +/- std. of level_3_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.8239 +/- 0.2867
Mean +/- std. of level_4_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.8810 +/- 0.2616
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.7824 +/- 0.3044



****** Results averaged over 5 runs (level-wise CRPS scores are shown first followed by the overall CRPS score): ******
Mean +/- std. of level_1_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.3632 +/- 0.1198
Mean +/- std. of level_2_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.4154 +/- 0.0460
Mean +/- std. of level_3_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.5111 +/- 0.0334
Mean +/- std. of level_4_geo_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.5816 +/- 0.0396
Mean +/- std. of level_2_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.5202 +/- 0.0976
Mean +/- std. of level_3_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.6625 +/- 0.0619
Mean +/- std. of level_4_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.8062 +/- 0.0544
Mean +/- std. of level_5_trav_mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.9116 +/- 0.0518
Mean +/- std. of mean_wQuantileLoss over 5 num_runs: 0.5965 +/- 0.0517