Enhancing Image-Conditional Coverage in Segmentation: Adaptive Thresholding via Differentiable Miscoverage Loss

Rui Luo, Jie Bao, Xiaoyi Su, Wen Li, Suqun Cao

International Conference on Learning Representations 2026 (ICLR 2026) Conference

Current deep learning models for image segmentation often lack reliable uncertainty quantification, particularly at the image-specific level. While Conformal Risk Control (CRC) offers marginal statistical guarantees, achieving image-conditional coverage, which ensures prediction sets reliably capture ground truth for individual images, remains a significant challenge. This paper introduces a novel approach to address this gap by learning image-adaptive thresholds for conformal image segmentation. We first propose AT (Adaptive Thresholding), which frames threshold prediction as a supervised regression task. Building upon the insights from AT, we then introduce COAT (Conditional Optimization for Adaptive Thresholding), an innovative end-to-end differentiable framework. COAT directly optimizes image-conditional coverage by using a soft approximation of the True Positive Rate (TPR) as its loss function, enabling direct gradient-based learning of optimal image-specific thresholds. This novel differentiable miscoverage loss is key to enhancing conditional coverage. Our methods provide a robust pathway towards more trustworthy and interpretable uncertainty estimates in image segmentation, offering improved conditional guarantees crucial for safety-critical applications. The code is available at https://github.com/bjbbbb/Conditional-Optimization-for-Adaptive-Thresholding.